The Nuclear Option(s)

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In March 2007 Parliament voted to retain the UK's independent nuclear sea-based deterrent. It would be Tony Blair's last, albeit pyrrhic, victory in Parliament as Prime Minister.

The vote was not without its controversies. Not for the first time, the government was reliant on Conservative support as 88 Labour MPs opted to vote against their own government, symbolizing the greatest Labour rebellion since the vote authorizing military action against Iraq.

However, despite its passage through Parliament, more troubles appear to have arisen regarding the viability of the UK's nuclear deterrent. Given the state of Britain's finances, real spending cuts are likely to be made across the board, particularly at the Ministry of Defense (MoD), which is already facing the strain of two wars. Even the Conservatives have reportedly discussed whether Trident should be cut down to three submarines, or whether it should be cut altogether.

This is a highly controversial stance to take, especially considering the bloody Parliamentary battles the Thatcher government had to confront in order to renew Britain's nuclear deterrent in the 80s.

Nevertheless, the discussion is not entirely about fiscal issues (estimates range from £20bn to £100bn), but also about what is expected of Britain in the 21st Century: Are we really under an obligation to our allies to maintain a nuclear deterrent? Will we lose our UN Security Council seat? What role does a nuclear deterrent play for a nation bogged down in asymmetric warfare in the Middle East? In fact, is it really an independent deterrent at all (an Anglican force de frappe)?

In the likelihood that David Cameron becomes Prime Minister after the next general election, the Conservatives have already stated that they will initiate a defense review, which of course, Trident is likely to feature prominently. Yet, one issue that rarely arises is that of retaining human capital. In order to build these submarines, British shipyards need continuity of work, something that is hardly coming in droves. Thus, a decision is far more pressing than some individuals might think.

Like many things, the tab for Britain's nuclear deterrent will be passed onto the Conservatives after the next general election. It is a decision that should be near the top of Mr. Cameron's in-tray.