Be Wary of "Experts"

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Market drops... Market rallies... Market drops... Market rallies...
 
One of the biggest misconceptions out there, IMHO, is that you can time the stock market. While many advisors say you can’t time the stock market, financial commentary, opinions, loud mouths on TV, the Web, and in print, essentially indicate otherwise; if you listen to them you will be a step ahead, they say.  There may be some obvious signs that given all the serious problems with the economy, a resolution will have to occur at some point. The problem is you never know when it will occur.
 
Everybody knew there were problems in the housing market a couple of years ago, one bubble following another. The problem is that only a handful made the right call relative to the bursting point and its trickle-down effect on the rest of the economy. At the recent bull market peak, in Oct. 2007, this vocal minority said stocks had quite a run, but we were in for a pull back. Hip, hip, hooray! They got it right.
 
But there were just as many, if not more, well qualified folks who held the exact opposite opinion that real estate could never drop. This group of folks, which was perhaps even more vocal than the former cohort, said the Dow Jones Industrial Average was going to reach 20,000.
 
Here's some food for thought:
 
- “The market's 53-day gain and 10 percent move above the 50-day moving average are second only to the market's performance in 1933. The net advances over the past 10 days are the third strongest ever, but he sees a case for even more gains.”  Commentary from Laszlo Biriniy on a Yahoo!Finance. 
 
- And a quote from Mr. Biriny just a couple of month’s earlier, writing in Forbes:   “Many of the underlying causes of the market's problems are not being addressed. Over the years I have made the case to Forbes readers that the Securities & Exchange Commission should take steps to reinstitute the rule banning short sales except on an uptick."
 
- How about Oil?  Remember last summer when it was $150 a barrel and commentators were saying Oil was “going to $200” and get in on the bargain now!
 
The point is that no one knows exactly what will occur in the future. Instead of being guided (misguided) by the noise, YPs should carefully assess their investment objectives, appetite for -- and understanding of -- risk, and find a qualified advisor who isn't going to lead them headfirst into another crash.