Health Care Reform in 2009? Maybe, Maybe Not...

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What do you think the chances are that a health care reform bill will become law in 2009?  Keith Hennessey, a National Economic Council director under former President George W. Bush, puts the odds of "a much more limited bill that becomes law this year" at 40 percent, and the odds of no health reform bill becoming law this year at 5 percent. 
 
Do you agree with those numbers?
 
Here are two related questions:
 
1) How substantial of an event would need to occur for the Obama administration to redirect its agenda away from health care?
 
2) And let's consider this scenario: Public support for the current plan for health care reform does not improve, defeat looms on the horizon and a situation arises that needs immediate attention (for example, in the unfortunate instance of a true "swine flu" crisis). Will the administration use that situation for political gain (or rather, to avoid political loss) by indefinitely postponing health reform?

We want to hear what you think.