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The Grand Realignment 2.0
There is an interesting piece by Charles Krauthammer in today's Washington Post, in which he claims Tuesday's results blow the theory that the 2008 presidential election signaled the creation of a grand new ideological alignment.
This theory has been promulgated by a number of Democratic strategists who have peppered Borders, cafes and airport waiting areas with literature that proclaims an era of dominance akin to that initiated by FDR's handsome victory in 1932. Through my own travails in various airports it was hard to miss this steady stream of books highlighting how conservatism is dead and how we can expect a Democratic majority for the next four decades.
The Democratic era of dominance 2.0.
Call me premature, but Tuesday may well have put a damper on any talk of a new grand realignment.
Sure, those on talk radio claiming we've just witnessed the revival of the GOP should probably be ushered away by people in white coats. And, yes, the Republican Party is still in dire straits. But this very fact made Tuesday's results--particularly in New Jersey--all the more staggering.
As Peggy Noonan points out today, although Barack Obama was not on the ballot, the President "told Jersey to vote for Jon Corzine, and they didn't. They don't hate him, they're just not hearing him. That's new. They're warning him: Hey you with the health-care obsession, shape up or you'll get shipped out!"
In Virginia, one of the most striking statistics is the number of under 30s (let's call it the Young Professional vote) backing the Democrats plummeted by 50 percent. This may well give the President food for thought. These voters, once his most ardent backers, now represent "the sharpest decline of any age demographic." These voters were meant to help make Virginia--a state that before last year hadn't backed a Democrat since 1964 when Johnson trounced Goldwater--a new bellwether.
Of course, this was an off-year election in a state that tends to back an individual that's not from the governing party in Washington. And, frankly, Creigh Deeds has as much personality as a pair of socks.
That being said, to create a grand new alignment we--obviously--have to see a sustained shift. But can we really say this is happening? At the moment, rather than the 2008 presidential election results having demonstrated a desire to back a new Democratic majority, it may well just have highlighted how volatile the American electorate can be.
Both parties should pay heed.
(Image by Quinn Dombrowski)
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