Making Sense of the New START and Nuclear Nonproliferation

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Last week the Obama administration released its Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) and the President signed the new START (strategic arms reduction treaty) with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev. This week, leaders from more than 40 nations have convened in Washington, D.C. for the Nuclear Security Summit to discuss global nuclear risk and a strategy for controlling insecure nuclear materials. YPNation spoke with William Schirano, an international security consultant based in Washington, D.C., about these recent events.

 
What is your impression of President Obama’s end goal of abolishing nuclear weapons?
I don’t think there’s a soul out there who wouldn’t like to abolish nuclear weapons. The question is, just what does that objective require? Frankly, I don’t think the world has gotten any closer to that goal since the advent of these weapons. Indeed, nuclear weapons are probably more indispensible for many states than they were at any other time in history – especially as it has become more and more affordable to develop and maintain an illicit program.
 
What we ought to be concentrating on--and I think that this administration and previous administrations have done a good job at this--is reducing the possibility of an accident occurring by reducing the world’s arsenal.
 
Certainly, the abolition of nuclear weapons is something that we ought to strive for over the long term. But there are important and realistic steps that we can, and should, take in the meantime.
 
Some have lauded the President’s approach as being balanced and even restrained—whereby he is taking steps to disarm while still maintaining the United States' position as a nuclear power. Do you believe the NPR achieves this goal?
There’s something to be said for that description, but I don’t know if I would use that language to describe this document.
 
Undoubtedly, transparency and predictability are good additions to this document. Restraint also is good, but I think that the NPR goes too far and is far too convoluted--especially with respect to how certain nations that have not signed the NPR are treated versus others. If you’re going to go down that road, you best be consistent or you risk the appearance that you are being hypocritical—something the United States has successfully been accused of time and time again.
 
What are the key points in the NPR that concern you? For example, what do you think of the extended nuclear deterrence policy?
Without getting into nauseating detail, there are two parts of this document that concern me. The first is our decision to in essence limit our nuclear deterrent to nuclear exchanges. The reason why this decision concerns me is not so much that I think it makes us less safe, but because I don’t think anyone really believes this is realistic. As a result, the document (and subsequently the President) will either seem naïve, disingenuous, or a combination of the two. Whether you’re an ally of the United States, an enemy, or somewhere in-between, it isn't advisable to treat the person sitting across the table from you like a fool.
 
The second issue that stuck out in my mind was how the missile defense issue was addressed. According to the NPR, missile defense is supposed to help reinforce regional security architectures and reassure non-nuclear allies and partners worldwide of our security commitments. If I’m a Russian reading that line, I can’t say I’m any more pleased with the way in which the Obama administration treats missile defense versus the Bush administration. As a result, I think you really have to call into question the decisions the Obama administration made with respect to Poland and the Czech Republic. Why, after further damaging the relationship with two of our strongest allies, would you turn around and give the Russians another bone to pick with you? So much for “reset!”
 
What positive steps were taken last week in terms of Russian-U.S. relations?
It’s always a positive when nations like the United States and Russia can sit down and try and identify issues upon which we both agree. Far too much time is spent wasting time over what divides us rather than unites us. That being said, I don’t think that what came out of the discussion was as significant as the administration would like us all to believe.
 
What was problematic?
Again, without getting into too much detail, there are real questions that continue to remain regarding the verification of the provisions that Russia has agreed to.
 
Iran and North Korea?
What is there to say about them? I don’t think that the NPR makes it any more or less likely that they will continue to pursue a reliable nuclear deterrent. The real issue is that if you were Iran or North Korea, would you act any differently? What we do about that reality very much depends upon the country, as both nations are rather unique with respect to the environment they find themselves in (the only constant being the United States and its nuclear arsenal).
 
What changes would you like to see made to the NPR and the new START moving forward?
In the case of the NPR, the administration is taking the right approach by trying to make our defense posture more predictable and logical. The missing ingredient, and this is true of START, too, is a healthy dose of realism. We still are very much lacking a realistic framework to how we approach national security. This administration has been better in some areas than the previous one, but it too has missed the mark in a number of respects--the most important of which is a proper assessment of leverage when it comes to each of our international relationships.
 
What do you hope comes out of the summit this week?
What I’d like to see is greater cooperation, especially with respect to preventing the illicit trafficking of nuclear materials. Given what that will involve, however, we’re going to need to learn how to crawl before we walk, so to speak. But this summit can be an important part of getting to where we’d ultimately like to be. We’ll see how many nations share that same hope.
 
(Photo of U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev after signing the "New START" treaty in Prague; Kremlin.ru)
 
Read more from William Schirano on national security.